Financial markets navigated a highly volatile landscape in November as shifting monetary expectations and disrupted economic data releases created uncertainty across asset classes. While headline equity performance appeared muted, with the S&P 500 finishing roughly flat at 0.25%, the month’s underlying dynamics were far more complex.

Market Performance Overview

Bonds were one of the few steadier areas of the market, supported by rising expectations that the Federal Reserve may begin easing as soon as December. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index gained 0.62%, reflecting the market’s belief that Federal Reserve is prepared to cut rates again in December.

Equity markets, meanwhile, grappled with several crosscurrents. Growth-oriented and small-cap stocks experienced outsized declines early in the month as they remain the most sensitive to monetary policy moves and shifts in economic momentum.

Drivers of Volatility

1. A More Hawkish Tone from the Fed

Mid-month volatility spiked as FOMC members signaled a cautiously hawkish posture, prompting investors to rethink the likelihood and timing of rate cuts. This recalibration put pressure on both growth-oriented equities and smaller companies that are more vulnerable to rising funding costs.

2. Government Shutdown Disruptions

The federal government shutdown exacerbated uncertainty. The Bureau of Labor Statistics was unable to publish jobs data and several other macroeconomic indicators. When the government reopened on November 14, markets learned that most October economic data would not be released at all due to the interruption in data collection.
This lack of visibility created a temporary “information vacuum,” leading to risk-off positioning across markets.

Shift in Sentiment: Emerging Easing Signals

The tone shifted meaningfully in the second half of the month when Fed Governor John Williams suggested that a December rate cut remained a possibility. Markets interpreted his comments as a deliberate signal that the Fed may be likely to make another rate cut during their December meeting.

Risk assets responded accordingly, helping stabilize equities and improving prospects for both small-cap and growth-oriented stocks, which are areas of the market that historically recover strongly during early-stage easing cycles.

Corporate Earnings Themes

NVIDIA (“NVDA”) was a focal point of November earnings, beating both revenue and earnings expectations and raising FY2026 guidance. CEO Jensen Huang reinforced that demand for GPU chips and AI cloud infrastructure remains robust.
However, NVDA shares saw episodic volatility after reports that Meta may explore sourcing billions of dollars of GPUs from Google.

Separately, Berkshire Hathaway’s $5B stake in Google (via its 13-F filing) further lifted sentiment around the company and strengthened the market’s view that foundational AI investments will continue well into 2026 and beyond.

Connecting Market Turbulence to Artha’s Portfolio Optimizer

Periods like November that are marked by missing economic data, shifting rate expectations, and conflicting signals across asset classes highlight the difficulty of navigating markets with traditional backward-looking approaches.

This is precisely where Artha’s Portfolio Optimizer potentially becomes a powerful tool.

We believe our optimizer allows advisors to structure portfolios based on historical return behaviors, whether it’s during recent trailing periods, historical market events, or historical economic events, which include:

Supported Regime & Event Optimizations

• 10-Year Treasury yield movements
• Fed rate hikes and Fed rate cuts
• Economic recession
• Equity market correction
• Persistent inflation
• Stagflation
• Yield curve steepening or flattening
• Yield curve inversion
• VIX Spike
• 2008 Financial Crisis
• COVID Crash
• 2011 U.S. credit downgrade
• Dotcom Bubble Burst

By modeling how portfolios historically behave under different regimes, and how asset classes rotate during different phases of the economic cycle, advisors may be able to:

• Better manage uncertainty during periods of volatility experienced in November
• Anticipate risk-asset dispersion when monetary policy pivots
• Identify area that strengthen during dislocations (e.g., utilities, staples, and Treasuries during corrections; energy during inflation; growth during easing cycles)
• Optimize portfolios for resilience without sacrificing opportunity

Conclusion

November’s volatility was not random. We believe it reflected the market’s difficulty pricing risk in an environment of incomplete information and shifting monetary expectations. As we enter 2026, investors may continue to face conditions where macro regimes shift quickly and unpredictably.

Artha’s optimizer is designed specifically for moments like these to help advisors navigate dynamic economic environments with a systematic, data-driven approach that helps provide customization in an efficient manner.

Disclosure

The S&P 500 is a stock market index weighted by market capitalization that is made up of 500 of the largest public companies in the United States.

The Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index is a benchmark that tracks the performance of the investment-grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market, including government and corporate bonds, mortgage-backed securities, and asset-backed securities.

This document does not constitute advice or a recommendation or offer to sell or a solicitation to deal in any security or financial product. It is provided for information purposes only and on the understanding that the recipient has sufficient knowledge and experience to be able to understand and make their own evaluation of the proposals and services described herein, any risks associated therewith and any related legal, tax, accounting or other material considerations.

Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources and such information has not been independently verified by Global Beta Advisors (“Global Beta”). No representation, warranty, or undertaking, expressed or implied, is given to the accuracy or completeness of such information by Global Beta or any other person. While such sources are believed to be reliable, Global Beta does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information. Global Beta does not undertake any obligation to update the information contained herein as of any future date.

Except where otherwise indicated, the information contained in this presentation is based on matters as they exist as of the date of preparation of such material and not as of the date of distribution or any future date. Recipients should not rely on this material in making any future investment decision.

Certain information contained herein constitutes “forward-looking statements,” which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “project,” “estimate,” “intend,” “continue,” or “believe,” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events, results or actual performance may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. Nothing contained herein may be relied upon as a guarantee, promise, assurance or a representation as to the future.

The results discussed herein are derived from both quantitative and qualitative factors, including historical returns and market conditions and assumptions. The projected results are presented to establish a benchmark for future evaluation of its performance, to provide a measure to assist in assessing the anticipated risk and reward characteristics of an investment to facilitate comparisons with other investments. Any target data or other forecasts contained herein are based upon highly subjective estimates and assumptions about circumstances and events that may not yet have taken place and may never do so. If any of the assumptions used do not prove to be true, results may vary substantially. The projected investment returns are pre-tax and represent possible returns that may be achieved. The projected investment returns are subject to change at any time and are current as of the date hereof only. In any given year, there may be significant variation from these projections, there is no guarantee that they will be able to achieve the projected investment returns in the short term or the long term.
The results contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, do not represent the performance of any Global Beta Advisor Artha product or any particular investment, and are not intended to predict or depict future results. Performance does not reflect the deduction of fees or expenses, returns received by an investor would otherwise be lower.