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Navigating Steady Gains, Shifting Signals, and the Early Stages of AI Growth

Navigating Steady Gains, Shifting Signals, and the Early Stages of AI Growth

After what we believe to be an uncharacteristically strong September, markets entered October with potentially renewed momentum and a sense of cautious optimism. Both equities and bonds delivered modest but meaningful gains as investors recalibrated expectations around inflation, monetary policy, and corporate earnings.

Steady Gains in Equities and Bonds

Equities continued to post monthly gains, with the S&P 500 rising 2.34% in October. The bond market also participated in the rally, supported by growing conviction that the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its tightening cycle. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index advanced 0.62% for the month of October, signaling a more balanced market tone after months of rate driven volatility.

Inflation Possibly Stabilizing; Possible Breathing Room for the Fed

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, released October 24, showed inflation continuing to stabilize. Prices rose 0.3% month-over-month (vs. 0.4% expected) and 3.0% year-over-year (vs. 3.1% expected). While slightly higher than August’s 2.9%, these readings confirm what markets have hoped to see: inflation that’s potentially leveling. We believe this moderation gives the Fed more flexibility to cut rates in the coming months.

A Softer Global Outlook

On the global stage, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) delivered a sobering message in its October 2025 Global Growth Outlook. The IMF downgraded its GDP forecasts for both 2025 and 2026, citing fiscal vulnerabilities and labor-supply shocks as key risks. Slower global growth could compress margins in the short term, but it also reinforced expectations that we could see global rate-cutting cycles as we head into 2026, providing a longer runway for liquidity-sensitive assets to perform.

Fed Cuts and Conditional Optimism

As expected, the Federal Reserve voted to cut rates by 25 basis points at its October 28 meeting — a move fully priced into markets. The nuance, however, came from Chair Jerome Powell’s tone: while the Fed remains open to further cuts, future action will depend on labor and inflation data. This conditional stance briefly tempered enthusiasm, but we believe another rate reduction in December remains likely unless employment data shows a sharp rebound.

For investors, that means policy support is coming — just not all at once.

Earnings: AI Still Leads the Story

Earnings season was dominated by large-cap technology and AI:

  • ServiceNow (NOW), Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta Platforms (META) reported on October 29, followed by Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) on October 30.
  • Most firms beat revenue and earnings expectations and raised forward guidance for 2026, fueled by AI-driven compute and workflow demand.
  • Meta Platforms was the exception, missing headline earnings due to a one-time $15.9 billion non-cash tax charge related to deferred U.S. tax adjustments.

Across the board, management teams reiterated plans for heavy capital investment in AI infrastructure and distribution. While these outlays may weigh on margins in the near term, they reinforce the idea that AI-driven growth is still in its early innings and that the leaders are willing to invest aggressively for the next phase of growth.

How to React and Position

We believe periods like this, when markets advance steadily but under the surface are filled with crosscurrents, are exactly where Artha’s Portfolio Optimizer can deliver its strongest value proposition.
Advisors today face a balancing act:

  • Inflation is easing, but global growth is slowing.
  • Policy is supportive, but not guaranteed.
  • AI is creating extraordinary opportunities but valuations seem stretched and the broad market seems concentrated.

The Artha Optimizer is designed to help investors navigate these trade-offs intelligently:

  • It attempts to dynamically adjust allocations across equities, fixed income, and alternatives as volatility and return expectations evolve.
  • It attempts to allow advisors to build custom index strategies that reflect both thematic convictions (like AI) and disciplined risk controls.
  • And as market leadership narrows, it seeks to enable data-driven diversification, attempting to ensure portfolios aren’t overexposed to the next headline shock.

In short, while the market’s narrative in October was one of measured optimism, the story beneath the surface was one of transition and transition is where adaptive portfolio construction shines.

The Bottom Line

October reinforced that we are entering a new phase: from reaction to adaptation. Inflation may be leveling, policy is shifting, and earnings growth is becoming more selective (winners vs losers of the “AI trade”). For advisors, success in 2026 will depend not just on finding the right ideas but on having the right tools to adapt as conditions change.

Disclosure

The S&P 500 is a stock market index weighted by market capitalization that is made up of 500 of the largest public companies in the United States.

The Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index is a benchmark that tracks the performance of the investment-grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market, including government and corporate bonds, mortgage-backed securities, and asset-backed securities.

This document does not constitute advice or a recommendation or offer to sell or a solicitation to deal in any security or financial product. It is provided for information purposes only and on the understanding that the recipient has sufficient knowledge and experience to be able to understand and make their own evaluation of the proposals and services described herein, any risks associated therewith and any related legal, tax, accounting or other material considerations.

Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources and such information has not been independently verified by Global Beta Advisors (“Global Beta”). No representation, warranty, or undertaking, expressed or implied, is given to the accuracy or completeness of such information by Global Beta or any other person. While such sources are believed to be reliable, Global Beta does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information. Global Beta does not undertake any obligation to update the information contained herein as of any future date.

Except where otherwise indicated, the information contained in this presentation is based on matters as they exist as of the date of preparation of such material and not as of the date of distribution or any future date. Recipients should not rely on this material in making any future investment decision.

Certain information contained herein constitutes “forward-looking statements,” which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “project,” “estimate,” “intend,” “continue,” or “believe,” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events, results or actual performance may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. Nothing contained herein may be relied upon as a guarantee, promise, assurance or a representation as to the future.

The results discussed herein are derived from both quantitative and qualitative factors, including historical returns and market conditions and assumptions. The projected results are presented to establish a benchmark for future evaluation of its performance, to provide a measure to assist in assessing the anticipated risk and reward characteristics of an investment to facilitate comparisons with other investments. Any target data or other forecasts contained herein are based upon highly subjective estimates and assumptions about circumstances and events that may not yet have taken place and may never do so. If any of the assumptions used do not prove to be true, results may vary substantially. The projected investment returns are pre-tax and represent possible returns that may be achieved. The projected investment returns are subject to change at any time and are current as of the date hereof only. In any given year, there may be significant variation from these projections, there is no guarantee that they will be able to achieve the projected investment returns in the short term or the long term.

The results contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, do not represent the performance of any Global Beta Advisor Artha product or any particular investmenhttps://helloartha.com/navigating-septe…o-optimization-2/t, and are not intended to predict or depict future results. Performance does not reflect the deduction of fees or expenses, returns received by an investor would otherwise be lower.

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Kevin Battista

VP of Product

Kevin is Co-Founder and Chief Product Officer at Artha, where he leads product strategy, design, and execution across the platform. He is responsible for shaping Artha’s core optimization engine, Scenario AI capabilities, and the broader product vision as the company evolves toward a modern, AI-driven wealth platform.

With over 15 years of experience building and scaling fintech and SaaS products, Kevin specializes in translating complex systems into intuitive, decision-driven tools. His work focuses on helping advisors and institutions move from static portfolio construction to dynamic, scenario-based decision-making at scale.

Kevin has led cross-functional teams through multiple product lifecycles—from early concept through market adoption—and has helped bring products to market that are used by some of the largest financial institutions in the U.S.

He holds a B.S. in Finance and Information Technology from Virginia Tech and an MBA from Wake Forest University.

Natallia Sakharuk

VP of Quality Assurance

Natallia is the VP of Quality Assurance at Artha who leads with a commitment to elevating product and service quality across the organization. She possesses a deep understanding of quality methodologies, industry standards, and is recognized for her strategic vision, a data-driven approach to decision-making, and her unwavering dedication to upholding the highest standards of quality in all aspects of the business. With over 8 years of dynamic experience in QA, she successfully orchestrated quality initiatives in FinTech and Corporate Real Estate projects resulting in enhanced product reliability, reduced defects, and increased customer satisfaction. Natallia holds a B.S. in Economics & Logistics from Belarusian State Economic University, a B.A. in Foreign Language from Academy of Postgraduate Education, is certified by ISTQB (International Software Testing Qualifications Board), and she has continued to stay at the forefront of industry advancements by attending workshops, seminars, and conferences.

As a trusted leader, Natallia is poised to drive Artha’s quality assurance initiatives to new heights, ensuring a lasting impact on both customer satisfaction and business growth.

Alexandre Junges

VP of Engineering

Alexandre leads Artha’s development team, collaborating closely with developers and software engineers to architect and construct a robust application that aligns with business requirements, prioritizing security, performance, and scalability. A fervent technology enthusiast, Alexandre is committed to enriching lives through innovative solutions. With over a decade of experience in application development spanning diverse industries, he holds a B. Tech. in Analysis and Systems Development from Unisinos, a Project Specialization from UFRGS (both universities in Brazil), and he is a Certified Microsoft Professional.

Justin Lowry

President And Chief Investment Officer

Justin Lowry is the President and Chief Investment Officer of Global Beta Advisors. Justin’s responsibilities include the oversight of investment activity, market research, and product development at Global Beta Advisors. Justin joined the firm as an executive member upon its foundation. Prior to working at Global Beta Advisors, Justin worked at Oppenheimer Funds as Head of Research and Product Development for its Beta Solutions exchange-traded fund business from 2015 until 2017, which at the time, held over $2 billion in assets in the Revenue Shares ETF suite. One of the cornerstone ETFs in the business, RDIV, won the ETF Innovation “Smart Beta ETF of the Year” award (Click here for more information about the award, contestants, and its qualifications). From 2010 until 2015, Justin served as CIO for Index Management Solutions, a subsidiary of VTL Associates, where he served as a subadvisor, providing custom portfolio solutions, portfolio management, and trading services to many ETF issuers that summed to $2 billion in management. Those funds included the Revenue Shares ETFs, KraneShares China ETFs, and several ETF issuers who launched their funds through Exchange Traded Concepts. Prior to the inception of Index Management Solutions, Justin worked as an analyst at VTL Associates since 2008. Justin earned his B.S. in Business Management from Saint Joseph’s University.

Vince Lowry

CHAIRMAN

With over 40 years of experience in the financial industry, Vince Lowry has built a distinguished career as an Investment Advisor. He began his journey in 1984 at Shearson Lehman, where he quickly established himself as a leader in the field. Over the next two decades, he grew his investment business to an impressive $20 billion in assets under management (AUM). Vince attributes this success to using modern portfolio theories as he was an early adopter of global asset allocation for diversification as well as utilizing advances being offered by technology.

In 2004, Vince and his team departed from Smith Barney Citigroup to launch their own Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) firm, VTL Associates. Over the next 11 years, they continued managing client assets while also developing an ETF family of funds known as RevenueShares.

One of Vince’s most notable achievements came in 2009 during the financial crisis. As the Investment Advisor to the Pennsylvania Treasury, he recognized an opportunity amid market turmoil. He advised the Treasury to leverage the New York Federal Reserve’s TALF program, investing in CMOs, ABS, and other distressed yet highly rated fixed-income securities. This strategic move resulted in a remarkable $3 billion gain for the Pennsylvania Treasury within just nine months.

In 2015, Vince and his team sold VTL Associates to Oppenheimer Funds, a subsidiary of MassMutual. Over the next two years, they played a key role in expanding Oppenheimer Funds’ ETF business. By August 2017, after fulfilling their obligations under the acquisition agreement, Vince and his team set out on a new path. Recognizing the agility of smaller firms, who are better positioned to explore and create creative strategies by embracing the rapid changes in the world of technology, they launched a new venture focused on delivering investment advice through innovative technology-driven solutions.

Vince Lowry continues to be a thought leader in the industry, leveraging decades of expertise to navigate the evolving financial landscape and drive meaningful results for his clients.